Manager selection

Choosing the right manager is a critical decision that can make or break a football team. Just like investment, there is no one-size-fits-all approach, it’s about finding managers whose style aligns with the objectives of the portfolio.

• Star manager: Carlo Ancelotti
  Arguably the most successful club manager in European history, ‘Don Carlo’s’ old-school, qualitative style, centred around culture and ‘good vibes’, raises eyebrows in a football world dominated by marginal gains and data.
• Quantitative manager: Marcelo Bielsa
  In sharp contrast, the enigmatic, tactical genius that is Marcelo Bielsa will hope his meticulous, data-driven approach can take Uruguay to their third World Cup title.
• Veteran manager: Didier Deschamps
  The definition of a safe pair of hands, Deschamps’ rigid, fundamental and methodical approach has delivered steady returns over the past 14 years — two finals and a trophy in 2018.
• EM/Frontiers specialist manager: Hervé Renard
  Tunisia became the first country in history to sack their manager one game into a world cup, but on the plus side it means the stylish Frenchman is back at another tournament, having previously coached Gambia, Angola, Ivory Coast, Morocco and Saudi Arabia.

Are the ‘old reliables’ still reliable?

Much like the diminishing security offered by once-safe household name stocks, the two most successful countries in World Cup history, Brazil and Germany, are no longer the ‘blue-chip’ picks they once were.

For a while, it seemed Brazil were trying their best not to qualify, losing six games over their campaign for this year’s competition, having lost only five in the previous 20 years. The five-time winners came into this World Cup with their lowest FIFA ranking since records began in 1992. Their recent tournament record doesn’t make for better reading either, having progressed beyond the quarterfinals just once since lifting the trophy in 2002. An opening game draw with Morocco and a win against Haiti so far have not set the world alight.

It’s fair to say this isn’t a vintage German side. Twelve months ago, optimism was high, with a new core of young players expected to revitalise a team that hadn’t reached a World Cup knockout stage in 12 years. Yet, as investors know, the past year has been anything but smooth. Players have consistently underperformed against their benchmarks and, as a result, Die Mannschaft entered this tournament on the back foot.

Two wins from their opening games suggest they still retain that trademark ability to grind out results, but whether they have the quality and depth to deliver a fifth World Cup remains to be seen.

It’s tempting to gravitate towards ‘safe’ assets simply because they have always been ‘safe’ but letting go of these biases and reassessing the risk–return profile of certain investments may prove key to success.

Look to emerging markets

With developed market assets no longer guaranteeing success, either on the pitch or in markets, it may be time to rethink the appeal of opportunities in South America and Africa.

Colombia were the team to watch back in 2014, as a young James Rodríguez lit up the tournament in Brazil. Now, in 2026, Rodríguez is back and, alongside the boundless energy of Luis Díaz and Daniel Muñoz, Colombia are a side nobody will want to face.

Morocco, the African champions (of sorts), became the first African team to reach a World Cup semi-final in 2022. An impressive performance against Brazil and a hard-fought victory over Scotland so far this tournament have cemented the Atlas Lions as a team to fear.

As investors consider moving out of ‘overvalued’ US equities while emerging markets continue to see strong inflows, the same may be true of this World Cup. A changing landscape demands a fresh approach — and if the “old reliables” are no longer delivering, it may be time to look elsewhere.